Can Marine Le Pen replace Emmanuel Macron as head of government in France? She is currently leading opinion polls for the European elections scheduled for next June, but will the far-right leader be able to translate this support into winning the presidency in 2027?
The National Union, the reborn version of the National Front, is known for its history of far-right anti-immigrant hostility and extreme economic policies on the fringes of French politics. The Eure region in Normandy is one of the crucial battlegrounds in the party's efforts to consolidate its place in the mainstream of French politics – and is also laying the groundwork for Le Pen to gain the margin needed to win the presidency in 2027.
“People see that there are hundreds of representatives elected by the National Union who make proposals, vote and act properly and are not scary at all,” highlighted Timothy Hussein, a young 35-year-old politician from the region, who spoke to Bloomberg.
Three years away from achieving the goal, the possibility of Le Pen winning the presidency is becoming increasingly clear – opinion polls suggest that the National Union is working to create the momentum needed for a major victory in the European elections in June, which is seen as an article for 2027. Emmanuel Macron, in turn, who is banned from running for a third consecutive term, is struggling to take initiatives in a divided parliament, and for the first time, Le Pen's party holds a major position. Hussein said: “Our goal is to win the 2027 World Cup, so we have to show that we are capable of continuing the good performance.”
For France, this will be a watershed moment, handing control of Europe's second-largest economy — with a migrant population of 10.3% of the total — to a fringe and xenophobic political movement that has championed a loosening of ties with the EU. Before the 2022 crisis, the invasion of Ukraine, and building closer relations with Russia.
Macron, in the view of many analysts, has not been so direct: they warn that the government must urgently do more to improve the situation of workers who have migrated to Le Pen's party. However, the French president has been accused of legitimizing his opposition. “He said he would be the anti-Le Pen candidate,” said Marta Lorimer, a researcher at the European Institute of the London School of Economics and Political Science, who investigates the far right. “All he did was basically suggest that Le Pen is his only possible alternative, which is a terrible message to send.”
The daughter of far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen – who came in second place in the presidential race in 2002 – was able to win the support of more and more voters using calmer rhetoric, after she abandoned extremist ideas such as leaving the European Union, although she still… She is determined to do so. Ambitions to transform the European bloc – Macron accused her of a plan that would cut ties with Germany and amount to a French version of Brexit.
The leader of the National Union had previously made three failed attempts to become president of France, although she became successively closer to it: in 2022, she obtained 41.5% in the second round and led her party to a record number of 89 seats in the legislative elections. This not only strengthened his position in the mainstream of French politics, but also helped deprive Macron of an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
It has chosen popular issues to support, such as widespread opposition to Macron's pension reform in 2023, or recent farmer protests against EU regulations and falling yields. The French president attacked her over Ukraine, saying Le Pen would side with Vladimir Putin – and she responded by presenting herself as an advocate for peace, criticizing Macron's recent suggestion that Europe could send troops to Ukraine, and highlighting how France is isolated on the international stage. . Le Pen has also sought to distance herself from her movement's anti-Semitic past, strongly affirming her support for Israel in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attacks.
Adelaide Zulfikarbasic, head of polling firm BVA Xsight, explained the rise in voting preferences after a period in which Le Pen almost detoxified the party's image. Zulfikarbasic confirmed: “There is a feeling that it has made progress in controlling the issues, and that in any case it is the only option that has not been tried. Come on, there is nothing to lose.”
Macron – often viewed by political opponents as a “president of the rich” – has no clear successor in a party built in his image. This has sparked speculation about who is best placed to confront Le Pen in 2027, from Edouard Philippe to Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. Some have even suggested Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, as a possible outside candidate.
Behind closed doors, senior officials realize that Le Pen's victory is more likely than ever if Macron cannot turn the situation around quickly – and there are those who claim that she would win the election if it were held tomorrow. Opinion polls show that the National Union is on track to defeat Macron's Ennahda list of candidates by at least 10 points in the European Union elections.
“There are moments in politics when we witness major changes that herald the end of an era, a cycle, or a regime,” Le Pen told her supporters in Marseille, at the launch of her party's election campaign in the European Union, last day. 3. “These are the times we live in.”
In recent months, the president has played all his cards for a frenzied reboot: he sacked his government to appoint the 34-year-old Attal as prime minister – he has “borrowed” a slogan from right-wing politicians to describe his change of heart on immigration, security and education as an approach that would ensure “ France remains France.
The strategy is to challenge the National Union directly on its traditional campaign issues – some of which Macron has already tried to avoid – in order to appeal to voters who feel unheard.
In fact, Le Pen's lack of clear political commitments made it difficult for Macron to deal her a devastating blow. But time is short, as Bruno Le Maire, French Finance Minister, pointed out. “We are at an absolutely decisive political moment. Now things must be decided, because it will take two years to complete the reforms. It is better to start immediately.”
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