The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will have “above average annual” activity and will see four “major hurricanes,” according to annual forecasts from Colorado State University (CSU) in the United States.
According to forecasts provided by the CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will see a total of 19 storms with maximum sustained winds of at least 63 km/h, which is higher than the average of 14 tropical storms.
In 2022 there will be four major hurricanes, that is, with winds of at least 178 km / h, and also higher than the average of three major hurricanes, according to the university’s forecast.
The Atlantic Basin hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, will, according to the CSU, record a total of nine hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 119 km/h.
Noted by Philip J. Klotzbach, who is responsible for the report, notes that the temperature in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean is “currently close to its normal average”, but that the temperature in the subtropical Atlantic is “warmer than normal”.
Because of this situation, “there is an above-average probability that major hurricanes will make landfall in the United States and the Caribbean coast.”
The CSU takes as a reference the averages set by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), based on history recorded between 1991 and 2020 in the Atlantic Ocean.
90 days of storms
The report forecasts a total of 90 days of storms, above the 80-day average, as well as 35 days of hurricanes, as in 2020 and 2021, but above the 27-day average.
According to Klotzbach, there is a 71% chance that a hurricane will affect the East Coast of the United States, a 46% chance of a hurricane hitting the Gulf of Mexico, and a 60% chance of hitting the Caribbean.
The expert notes in the report that it is “impossible to predict an entire hurricane season already in April” which is why this university periodically updates its forecast, such as this year on June 2, July 7 and August 4.
Seventh consecutive season above average
If the forecasts announced are met, 2022 will be the seventh consecutive season of above-average hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Last year’s season ended with twenty-one storms, seven of which turned into hurricanes and four of them major hurricanes.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release its forecast for the upcoming season in the Atlantic Basin in May.
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