Should the rest of the world follow suit? – executive summary

In November 2023, Geert Wilders' anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim party swept the Dutch elections, which was seen as a political earthquake. The scale of his victory came as a shock to the Netherlands' center and left parties, and they jointly decided that “the most dangerous man in Europe” should never become prime minister.

The Dutch are not alone in looking for an institutional solution against far-right populism, according to The Conversation: Across the European Union, politicians are erecting a “cordon cordon” against extremism – a tactical red line to prevent extremists from radicalizing. Right-wing parties are unable to enter government coalitions.

It is not a new movement: at the end of the 1980s, Belgian parties signed an agreement to exclude the Vlaams Blok, a far-right party, from the government. The resulting cordon sanitaire lasted for thirty years and evolved from a written agreement into an unwritten agreement, a strategy being tested in other countries.

In the next EU parliamentary elections in June, center and left groups of MEPs are planning a quarantine strategy to isolate the far right in the European Parliament – ​​however, the prospects for the success of this EU strategy are far from certain.

In Portugal and Spain, embattled governments are also turning to anti-extremist coalitions. Luis Montenegro “allied” with the Socialist Party and the Liberal Initiative to exclude Shiga, the third most voted party in the March 10 legislative elections. In the neighboring country, in a highly controversial move, the Socialist government has signaled its willingness to work with Catalans accused of crimes against the Spanish constitution – according to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, it is better to work with separatists than to hand the government over to extremist authorities. Right populist forces.

Germany is the only country in Europe with a grassroots anti-extremism movement in the streets. Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated against the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party. Although the AfD has been decided by nearly 25% of voters and is expected to win seats in the Reichstag this summer, it will be impossible for any established party to work with them.

This tactic has a weakness in itself: quarantine only deals with populists when they reach government. It is always a half-measure, because when the populists win an absolute majority, the cordon sanitaire becomes useless.

The United States, Poland, and Brazil have already elected populists. Establishment Democrats are trying to revitalize Joe Biden's lackluster presidential campaign by arguing that they are the Democratic wall against Donald Trump's MAGA movement.

However, Trump does not have the advantage of being an unknown figure to Republicans. Those who love Him are true believers. And the rest don't like him. The winner of the US presidential election is likely to be the candidate least disliked by voters.

In Poland, Donald Tusk and his coalition are trying to restore the independence of the judiciary and expel extreme nationalists from senior positions in the bureaucracy. They could succeed because Tusk has the support of Polish voters and the EU bureaucracy.

Brazil's quarantine strategy relies on the judicial system, which has been more effective than US courts: former President Jair Bolsonaro and his key supporters have been banned from holding elected office for the next seven years.

In Israel, the religious right occupies a crucial place in the wartime unity government. He has built a wall against progressive parties – a reverse quarantine. Although Netanyahu is hated by most Israelis and described as “the worst leader in Jewish history,” he will be difficult to remove. The Hamas attacks on October 7 gave him another political life.

Democracy is also under major attack in countries such as India, Hungary and Italy. Perhaps the biggest benefit of populist quarantines today is that they provide pro-democracy parties some breathing room. How these parties exploit this borrowed time could determine the fate of nations.