Joe Biden should no longer want to look at the polls: every poll of voters points to precarious hopes, at the beginning of this year, for re-election to the White House – recent approval ratings put him at 39%, with consumer sentiment down. Regarding the economy, it is approaching its lowest level in the past ten years, and remains behind Donald Trump in a hypothetical “rematch” in the presidential election.
Should Democrats be worried? There are several relevant historical patterns that are important to take into account and that work in Biden's favor, as Matthews Lebo, professor and head of the Department of Political Science at Western University in the United States, pointed out in an article on the website 'The Conversation'.
let's see:
In seven of the last eight presidential elections, Democrats won more votes – leaving aside the Electoral College, American voters lean Democratic. After that, voters don't often abandon the president. Since 1896, the only two presidents to have replaced the opposing party and then lost re-election are Jimmy Carter (1980) and Trump (2020). Unless things are going (really…) very badly, the president's re-election is the most likely outcome.
Poll results must be viewed carefully, but their timing affects what we make of them: approval ratings in January of an election year do not reflect the level of support that is likely to exist in November.
Biden's approval rating stands at 78% among Democrats, but those numbers are likely to improve in November if the re-elections of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are any indication – as of January 1, 2012, 76% of Democrats approved of Obama's performance: in and after the week of the election; It rose to 91% — and 92% of Democrats ended up voting for Obama in 2012. Clinton, with a 72% rate among Democrats in January 1996, saw that number rise to 86% in the electoral law.
There is another “pocket” of Biden support among independent voters — neither Democrats nor Republicans. The approval rate for the current US president among this group is slightly less than 30%, but they preferred him over Trump in 2020 – 52% – 43%. Therefore, it is likely that more than 30% will choose Biden in November.
Biden vs. Trump may be a bad sign of what's to come, especially when there's a candidate running for re-election: the incumbent party's nominee is known while the media focuses on the other party's debates and primaries.
However, 2024 is anything but typical.
In a routine reelection year, voters take time to form opinions about the opponent. Voters already know Trump, the first former president since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, to run for president again — and Roosevelt actually lost.
Moreover, a rematch between Biden and Trump will be the first rematch since Adlai Stevenson lost a second time to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. If Trump is the nominee, voters will already have well-defined opinions about both candidates.
Concerns about Biden's age will be considered on a more comparative basis, as Trump will be older in his second inauguration than Biden was in his first.
Additionally, Trump's presidential campaign being tangled while fighting legal battles in four jurisdictions will provide a daily contrast with Biden. A recent poll conducted by the Washington Post newspaper indicated that 56% of respondents considered that Trump is most likely or definitely guilty of criminal conspiracy in connection with the electoral fraud process and efforts to cancel the 2020 elections.
Based on 2020, we know a lot about how voters chose between Trump and Biden. In light of the strong polarization between the two parties, it is unlikely that there will be a major movement in the 2020 results.
Biden's victory, by a margin of 7 million votes, included the main states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. That was good for 306 of the 538 Electoral College votes.
It is possible that the president will lose many of these swing states in 2024, and he will still prevail. The 2022 midterms have brought in many new voters – younger and pro-choice – who will likely add to that small cushion. The year 2024 holds many unknowns at the ballot box.
“Hardcore alcohol maven. Hipster-friendly analyst. Introvert. Devoted social media advocate.”
