Sources close to the former president told the New York Times that Trump believes the re-election will distract from the media’s interest in the January 6 hearings. The Washington Post cites advisers Trump intends to announce as early as September.
Among the various factors influencing the decision is also the low popularity of Joe Biden, which stands at 38.7%. But announcing the re-run before the election is likely to be negative, giving Democrats a way to motivate anti-Trump voters.
For Everett Vieira III, a professor of political science at California State University in Fresno, it would make sense for Trump to wait and announce his re-election after the November midterm elections.
“There, then [o congressista republicano] “Kevin McCarthy becomes Speaker of the House, and the parliamentary committee investigating Jan. 6 will be rescinded,” analyst Lusa said.
If Republicans also win the Senate, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell could block all Biden nominations, and “Trump could campaign on that.”
“Trump has a known name, he has people fighting for him to this day, but I think he will wait until after the midterms,” he said.
According to political scientist Jeffrey Cummins, interim dean of the College of Social Sciences at California State University in Fresno, early announcements are often made “to push advertising for other candidates and try to attract donors as soon as possible.”
However, this case could also be a matter of launching the campaign before the Justice Department formally confers a criminal charge against Trump for his involvement in the Capitol theft.
It could make the case that a presidential candidate should not be the target of an attempted criminal conviction, Cummins suggested. The analyst said a criminal investigation into Trump’s case would favor Republican challenger Ron DeSantis, but cautioned that such a case would take too long to gather and judge, potentially until 2024.
The congressional committee investigating the Capitol Hill robbery is cooperating with the Department of Justice on matters that may relate to Trump. Commission chief Benny Thompson told reporters that the department was investigating a bogus “top electorate” scheme designed to fraudulently keep the former president in power.
What happens if Trump is nominated and indicted? And if I win? “It’s not clear what would happen if there was a criminal case and Trump won the election,” Jeffrey Cummins admitted. “We’ve never had a situation like this before.”
CNN reported last week that Donald Trump is regularly questioning his allies about when public hearings will end, the impact of which is greater than expected. The parliamentary committee was expected to finish its work in mid-July, but the timetable has been extended. The next public hearing is expected to take place on Thursday, July 21.
Given the context, and the fact that the presidential election is more than two years away, political analyst Brian Adams sees it as too early to start a campaign.
“It would not be helpful for Trump to announce his re-election now,” said the analyst, a professor at California State University in San Diego. “I don’t think Ron DeSantis and other potential candidates are going to drop out because of that,” he explained.
Adams said the early announcement would not have the effect of diluting the aspirations of Republican politicians such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
“Historically, when someone declares themselves a presidential candidate years ago, it doesn’t do very well,” he said.
He also considers the idea that Trump will secure reappointment if he wants to run again, as preposterous. “I think there will be a competitive primary among the Republicans.”
This view is in line with the content of several articles that have appeared in the US press, from Politico to CNBC, and a report on Trump-related “burnout” among major Republican donors, who analyze the viability of other candidates.
“The faster the candidate announces, the more he will walk on his back with a target,” Everett Vieira said.
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Lusa / end
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