Hey summer He is actually “knocking on the door.” The station hotter The year (its longest days and shortest nights) begins at the hour Northern hemisphere the June 20 at 9:51 p.m., lasts 93 days. The beginning of the astronomical season coincides with the solstice, the moment of the year when the Sun reaches its highest altitude at noon, and when the days with the greatest number of hours of light occur.
For climatology, summer begins on June 1 and ends on August 31. During this three-month period, the highest temperatures of the year are recorded and rainfall tends to be very rare in almost all parts of the country.
In the last two years – 2022 and 2023 – Continental Portugal registered Two of the six hottest summers since 1931. Last summer it was The sixth warmest summer in the last 93 years.
According to data from IPMA, The average value of the average air temperature in summer 2023 is 22.90 °C, i.e. 1.65 °C above the reference climatic mean. (normal climate 1971-2000), with the highest value reached at 2005: 23.43°C.
Summer seems hotter than usual
According to the latest forecasts from Copernicus Climate Change Service (hereinafter referred to as C3S)one of the reference organizations for meteoror Next summer will be hotter than usual in most parts of mainland Portugalwith probability 60 to 100% For such an occurrence.
In fact, predictions are not based on a single reference model, but on… Eight different models developed in several countries and European R&D centersas well as in countries on continents other than Europe (United States and Japan).
It’s not just the possibility of a hotter-than-normal summer Continental Portugalbut also for the rest Iberian Peninsula And to one A large part of Europeanticipating the most important conditions for Mediterranean countries and regions in Europe, such as South… France, Italy and GreeceOr in Southeastern Europe – region Balkans – Which includes countries such as Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Albania, Romania and BulgariaAmong others.
Only a few areas north Iceland, the Baltic Sea and Russia Present Neutral anomalies In the map.
If we only take into account 20% of the warmest summers on record are in mainland Portugal,The probability that the next station will fall into this category is 60-70% for coastal areas (except Minho) and 70-100% for inland areas, Minho, Azores and Madeira. This means average temperatures could be similar to the five or six hottest summers on record since 1931.
Will the next few months be full of the famous “summer thunderstorms”?
According to the C3S seasonal forecast map, this can be seen The climate of summer 2024 will be dry from the north to the south of the continent and in a large part of the Madeira archipelagoAnd within the natural reference values in the archipelago Azores Islands.
regarding falling This may be the case It is getting worse in some areassince Summer, climatically, is the driest season of the year in mainland Portugalalthough precipitation appears with some frequency in the form of Strong thunderstormsThat is, the famous “summer thunderstorms.”
These forecasts acquire more expressive features if we consider a month April is classified as very hot and very dryduring which weather drought was present again Nearly 10% of the continent’s geography. The perspective that The summer quarter is dry It does not support anything for areas suffering from chronic water shortages, e.g Alentejo And the Algarve.
Still according to According to C3S forecasts, the summer will be drier than usual Throughout geography Continental Portugal he is in a lot of Autonomous region wood, With a probability of 40 to 50%. In this case, the signal is not as clear as in the case of temperatures. We should not forget that A single thunderstorm or summer storm can change the balance of precipitation in the summer season.
