The “double haters” are disappearing, and 90% of voters (even Republicans) approve of Biden’s decision. How did the political earthquakes of the past month shake voting intentions?

Voters are now moving on the back of the remarkable events that have turned this campaign into one of the craziest in modern U.S. history. The aftershocks of Biden’s withdrawal and the assault on Trump have already shifted the presidential tectonic plates—and more shifts in the polls are expected in the coming weeks.

With the majority of American voters clearly opposed to rematch In 2020, the November presidential election appeared to be in the hands of a dominant group known as the “double haters” — those who support neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden and who, for months, consistently made up a fifth of the 2020 electorate in opinion polls, an unprecedented number in U.S. electoral history. That changed a week ago, when the incumbent president confirmed he would not run.

One Siena College New York Times PollThe study, released Thursday, shows that the number of “double haters” has dropped from 20% to 8% since Biden dropped out, paving the way for Kamala Harris’s candidacy, in part because left-wing voters are happy with the current president’s departure.

They’re not alone. The same poll shows that nearly nine in 10 voters, including Republicans and independents, think Biden made the right decision. As I noted, Data Analyst Nate Cohen“I don’t think the Times/Siena poll has ever found that 87% of voters approve of anything, but that’s the percentage of people who say they approve of Biden’s decision to drop out of the race.” So much so that now that he’s left the race, his approval rating has risen from 36% to 43% — with Harris’s approval rating rising to 46%.

Trump is ahead – but within the margin of error

Both Harris and Trump are riding the wave of big, unexpected events, which explains why Trump’s popularity has trailed that of the current president and his vice president. Overall, 48% of registered voters say they have a favorable view of the Republican nominee, up six percentage points from the last poll by the same institute—right after the debate, in which Biden was drowned, but before Trump survived the attack in Pennsylvania.

That’s his most favorable number in the Times/Siena poll since the start of the primary, after months of hovering between 39% and 45%. That may explain another important fact to remember from the latest New York Times poll — despite the fruits of Biden’s decision for Democrats, Donald Trump is still in the lead.

The difference is that at this moment, the margin separating him from his likely Democratic rival (the nomination will not be formalized until the August convention) is smaller: between potential votersExcluding registered voters, Trump had 48% of voting intentions, compared to 47% for Harris. In the latest CNN poll, Trump had 49% support among registered voters nationwide, compared to 46% for Harris — a result within the margin of error of the poll’s sampling, which translates into a much closer race than previous cable polls. Biden vs. Trump

“On issue after issue, there are big moves compared to previous Times-Siena polls, all of which were conducted before Harris secured her party’s vice presidential nomination, before the Republican National Convention, and before Trump’s assassination attempt,” notes Nate Cohn. “Even a one-point deficit for Harris represents a significant improvement for Democrats after the election.” Biden by six points In the latest poll published by The Times/Siena.

Harris’s advantage is the fact that she is also rising in the polls, even more so than Trump. Overall, 46% of registered voters say they have a favorable view of the Democrat, up from 36% in February. The share of respondents who disapprove of her is now below the 50% threshold, down from 54% in the last poll.

Kamala’s Rapid Rise and the Possible ‘Kennedy Effect’

Overall expectations also appear to be improving. The overall number of voters who now think the U.S. is on the “right track” has risen to 27%—a relatively low number, but still the highest since the 2022 midterm elections. The share of registered voters who say this has also risen. Given the alternatives on the ballot, the percentage who did not go to the polls this year has also fallen from 4% to 2%.

Among Democrats, the outlook is brighter. Nearly 80% say the party should nominate Kamala Harris, while just 14% say it should nominate someone else — and 70% think it should unite around her, compared with 27% who say the party should focus on a more competitive nomination process.

The point is that no one is willing to give up future, higher-potential candidacies to put themselves in the path of what could be the first woman and first African-American president of the United States. As Ron Brownstein told CNN Portugal on Thursday: “Challenging the first woman of color for vice president was always a risky proposition for any other candidate with long-term ambitions. While there might have been a theoretical demand for an alternative, it is unlikely that there would ever be a supply.”

So what can we expect from the Harris-Trump clash? It’s too early to tell, but voters are moving. After a busy month of campaigning, the next few weeks will be crucial to understanding how much additional support Kamala can get — now that polls show she’s In a better position than Biden (And Trump) among young voters, Latinos, and of course African Americans.

She may also be helped by a third-party candidate in this race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has greater appeal among right-wing voters—and who, when viewed in the latest New York Times poll, along with other, smaller candidates, puts Kamala and Donald in a technical draw.

“This is just a poll, but the idea that Kennedy’s presence in the race could help Harris more significantly can’t be dismissed,” Cohn says. “If he’s appealing enough to young, disaffected voters, Kennedy may not have as much support.” [a Harris] – And it could start to disproportionately withdraw support from Trump.