The country has suffered more than a dozen coups since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, the most recent of which was in 2014, during the reign of current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, when he was commander of the army.
Under the military administration, democratic reforms were suppressed and activists were persecuted. Other reasons may have motivated changes in the political scenario: the economic downturn and mismanagement of the covid-19 pandemic reinforced discontent with the head of government and the candidate for re-election by the newly created United Thai Nation Party.
“The main factor may be that people are no longer willing to tolerate the authoritarian government that has been in power for more than nine years and that there is a great desire for change,” Pincayo told the Associated Press news agency. Professor of Anthropology at Chiang Mai University.
More than 52 million voters are invited to vote for 70 parties, which vie for 500 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Thailand’s National Assembly: 400 are directly elected and 100 are chosen through some form of proportional representation.
Opposition parties, which praise the reforms to take control of the military, have gained points in opinion polls, according to the Associated Press. However, policies that threaten the status quo worry the ruling conservative regime. This has been able to overthrow governments elected by the people, either through courts seen as pro-monarchy or military coups.
Prayuth represents one of the poles of the Asian country’s politics, centered around the royalists and the military. Thaksin Shinawatra, the populist billionaire ousted in a 2006 coup, represents the other.
In opinion polls, Prayuth lost ground to Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who had inherited her father’s popularity and political style. At the age of 36, she had a heavy pregnancy during her pregnancy, and gave birth to a baby boy last week.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra is also the favorite among the three prime ministerial candidates from the opposition Pheu Thai Party, which is expected to win a majority of seats in the lower house of parliament.
The face-to-face confrontation between the Shinawatra clan and its rivals evokes other recent events in Thai political history. Prayuth’s coup in 2014 overthrew a government that came to power with Yingluck Shinawatra, Pitongtren’s aunt and Thaksin’s sister. Pheu Thai also topped the 2019 elections, after being deprived of power when the military-backed Palang Pracharath party found coalition partners.
But the third actor emerged in these elections. The Move Forward party, led by businessman Peta Limjaronrat, 42, is a solid name among young voters and appears to be the favorite for prime minister in opinion polls conducted by the National Institute for Development Management (NIDA, in its English acronym). ).
However, for conservative Thailand, Move Forward is an extreme party, says another academic interviewed by the AP: It advocates reform of the armed forces and the monarchy, a bold move in a country where the latter are traditionally untouchable.
Pheu Thai largely shares Move Forward’s reform agenda, but the latter’s more direct stance poses a dilemma: allying with Move Forward could antagonize the Senate, the upper house of parliament and the conservative body.
Thailand’s constitution, adopted in 2017 under military rule, requires the prime minister to be chosen by a joint vote by the 500-seat lower house and the 250-seat upper house appointed by the ruling junta.
In 2019, the Senate voted in caucus, unanimously to support Prayuth. This time, the party that captures the majority of seats in the House of Representatives may need at least 376 votes if the Senate opposes the candidate for prime minister.
If Pheu Thai is in this situation, he can look for coalition partners among the parties that have seats in the room. The other alternative, as confirmed by the Associated Press, is the nomination of one of the party’s other candidates for the post of prime minister, as is the case for Sritha Thavisin, 60, who does not bear the burden of the Shinawatra name, which is anathema to conservatives in the Senate.
Among the prospects for Pheu Thai, another alliance is also expected: with former general Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, deputy prime minister of Prayuth and candidate for prime minister of the right-wing Palang Pracharat party.
Polls do not benefit Prawit Wongsuwan or the party, but being in government may reassure some senators. On the one hand, it may appear that the coalition is deviating from the Pheu Thai platform, and on the other hand, the fact that Prawit was not actively involved in the 2014 coup plot can be used to generate sympathy among Pheu Thai supporters.
