Kamala Harris’s positive shift in the Democratic campaign numbers remains intact after four weeks. Nationally, the vice president has increased her lead over Donald Trump by 2.7 percentage points. In the seven key states, an independent report released Wednesday put the Democrat ahead of the Republican in five, with Trump ahead in just one and tied in the last.
This Friday’s numbers from Thirty five eightABC News’ site that aggregates all published polls in the country, compared to last week. Kamala Harris meets again 46.3% of voting intentions (compared to 45.5% previously), while Donald Trump gained only a modest 0.2% and Now 43.6%This represents a. Democrats’ lead increased from 2.1 to 2.7 percentage points..
Republicans have categorized Harris’s campaign’s good results as “honeymoon period“Keep in mind that the novelty factor should wear off soon. The turning point for Democrats, specifically, was Joe Biden dropping out of the White House race and replacing him as the Democratic vice presidential nominee.
But the numbers seem to contradict this idea since then. continues to grow steadilyOn Thursday, Harris led Trump by 2.9 percentage points, before the poll was released. External intelligenceWhich reduces that margin to the current 2.7. However, Kamala Harris’ real victory in the polls is Results in key states.
Last week, Cook Political Report Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada change from “Republican-leaning” to “Republican-leaning”tossupThis Wednesday, the same publication shared a new report from The swing state projectIt is a project that analyzes opinion polls only in the key states where presidential elections are decided. On average across the seven states analyzed, 48% of respondents said they intended to vote for Harris.While 47% said they lean toward Trump.
Kamala Harris maintains lead over Donald Trump in polls for third straight week
The margin of advantage is very small, the report notes, but the Democrats’ progress is impressive. The project’s last publication dates back to May, when Donald Trump led Joe Biden by three percentage points in the seven-state average. Looking at each of them specifically, Democrats did not lead any of them: the Republican led by six votes and there was a tie in Wisconsin.
Now, under Kamala Harris’s campaign, the scenario has flipped. Democrats are ahead in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Republicans are ahead only in Nevada. In Georgia, there is a technical tie, with 48% of voters intending to vote.
The most comfortable margins are found in The vice president leads in Michigan and Wisconsin by three percentage points.In Arizona, she has a two-point advantage and in Pennsylvania, she has a one-point advantage. In North Carolina, too, she has a one-point advantage, but it’s worth noting that in May, Trump was ahead of Biden by seven percentage points, an eight-point rebound for Democrats.
In Georgia, too, the Republican White House hopeful had a greater voter turnout, and now there is a tie. Even in the state Trump continues to lead, Nevada, Harris’s rise has been sharp: she has narrowed the Republican margin by six percentage points, and is now very close to Trump.
With the election dates in these seven states, the candidates are focusing their efforts here in the final months of the campaign. Republican running mate J.D. Vance is ending the week in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while Harris and Walz will be in Raleigh, North Carolina. The Democratic convention is scheduled for next week in Chicago, Illinois, but the Democrats will use their trip to the Great Lakes region to March in neighboring Wisconsinon Tuesday.
The Trump-Harris debate on September 10 — the only confirmed debate so far — will also take place at 10:00 p.m. swing state. the ABC Channelwhich will organize this discussion, announced on Friday that it will do so. It takes place in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania..
