Three weeks after becoming the Democratic presidential nominee to succeed Joe Biden, Kamala Harris has turned the polls in her favor in five battleground states and widened her lead over Donald Trump nationally.
The new Cook Political Poll, which covers seven battleground states, shows Kamala Harris leading in Pennsylvania (+1), Michigan (+3), Wisconsin (+3), North Carolina (+1), and Arizona (+2).
Georgia is technically tied, and in Nevada, Donald Trump is ahead (+3). Here, Harris has closed the gap by six points in three weeks. In May, the Cook Political Report poll showed Trump leading in all of these states by 1 to 9 points, except Wisconsin, where the race was tied. “Harris’s success in closing the gap is due to her strengthening of the Democratic base and increasing support among independent voters,” analyst Amy Walter wrote in the report.
Change is also coming to Florida, where a new Florida Atlantic University poll shows Donald Trump holding a three-point lead over Biden, half the lead he had previously held. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, released Aug. 6, showed the candidate up 20 to 30 points among African-American voters, white women with college degrees and independent women.
Latest research New York TimesSiena College also shows a “dramatic reversal” for the Democratic Party, with Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by four percentage points (50% to 46%) for Trump. “The Index” Financial TimesThe poll, which is based on several surveys, gives Harris a 1.4-point advantage in Michigan, 0.6-point advantage in Wisconsin and a tie in Pennsylvania, a state where Trump previously won 4.4 points more than Biden.
Data from high-quality state polls provide stronger indications than national averages, but the global trend also benefits Democrats. foot Harris leads with 47.4% to Donald Trump’s 45.5%.
The data, aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, also shows that Kamala Harris now has 46.2% of national voter intentions, compared to 43.5% for Donald Trump. That’s a 2.7-point lead, reversing an upward trend since late July, when the candidate held a 0.8-point lead.
In August, Morning Consult, Quantus Polls and News, Pew Research Center, Big Village, YouGov, Activote, and Emerson College polls showed Harris leading by 1 to 5 points. Beacon Research/Fox News and JL Partners pollsDaily Mail Trump’s lead was shown by two points and two points, respectively.
In a session analyzing the impact of the switch from Biden to Harris, Morning Consult analyst Cameron Easley highlighted that there are now more Democrats excited about the 2024 election. “Since the switch, enthusiasm has increased among voters over 45,” the analyst said, noting that this difference is not as pronounced in younger age groups, which historically vote at lower rates.
