How Lula’s visit to Buenos Aires can help the president of Argentina in an election year

Amidst this opposite scenario to Fernandez, experts interviewed by BBC News Brasil claimed that Lula’s visit could be seen as an attempt to “boost” the Argentine president’s popularity with a view to the October elections.

Fernandez is a Peronist politician (the main center-left political force in Argentina) elected in 2019, defeating former President Mauricio Macri, the country’s main center-right leader.

Fernandez is one of the main names of Peronism, a political ideological current founded by former Argentine President Juan Domingo Peron.

In the early 2000s, he became close to the married couple Nestor and Christina Kirchner and was their chief of staff when he took over the country’s presidency. In 2008, he moved away from Cristina to close in the 2019 elections and defeat Macri.

Currently, Fernandez and Christina Kirchner’s relationship is strained amid internal disputes within Peronism.

Fernández was elected promising to reverse the liberal measures adopted by the Macri government, lower the unemployment rate and control inflation.

But after nearly four years, the country is still suffering from an economic crisis, difficulties in obtaining currency to finance its exports, and an inflation rate that is among the highest in the region.

Argentine government data shows that between January and November 2022, official inflation in the country reached 92%. Internally, the weakness of the Argentine peso makes it normal, on the streets of Buenos Aires, to shop in other currencies such as the dollar or even the real.

To become electorally viable, Fernandez will have to contend with internal rift with Christina Kirchner and take on the country’s most radical center-right and right-wing candidates, with names ranging from opposition leader Patricia Bullrich, chair of the Republican Proposal Party, to MP and liberal economist Javier Miley.

“It is likely that Fernandez will face great difficulties in his re-election, as the context is marked by political and economic obstacles. Politically, it is worth remembering the disagreements and disagreements over the conduct of economic policy between him and Vice President Christina Kirchner […] From an economic point of view, Argentina faces serious difficulties, ”explained international relations professor and researcher Livia Milani.

For PUC Sao Paulo professor of international relations Arthur Murta, Lula’s visit to Argentina could “boost” Fernandez’s political group in an election year.

“The fact that Lula chose Argentina for the first international trip of his state indicates the public opinion standing of our neighbours, and this could somewhat strengthen Fernandez’s alliance,” said the professor.

In the face of these difficulties and with the election date approaching, the Argentine government took advantage of Lula’s visit to Buenos Aires to make a series of announcements in the economic field even before the arrival of the Brazilian delegation to the country.

Among them was the possible release of resources from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) to build part of the gas pipeline that could connect the Vaca Muerta Basin to Brazil. The financing will amount to at least R$3 billion and will represent the bank’s return to business loans abroad.

On the other hand, the Argentine authorities announced that the two countries will work to establish a common currency for bilateral trade transactions, thus circumventing Argentina’s need to obtain dollars to finance its imports.

In Brazil, this news sparked controversy amid rumors that the project could unite the real and the Argentine peso, an idea that was rejected by Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.

For Arthur Murta, Fernandez’s electoral difficulties help explain the string of economic announcements the Argentine government has made in recent days.

“For Argentina, having the support of the BNDES in development projects and the creation of a joint economic-trade working group is a great gain, especially in an election year and in a scenario of few options for resolving the Argentine crisis,” Muallem said.

“Financing via BNDES and the creation of a common currency that makes commercial transactions possible without the use of dollars are initiatives that could have relevant effects on the Argentine economy, which is essential for any government in an election year,” said Professor Flavia Milani.

On the Brazilian side, despite the photo and mutual statements of appreciation between Lula and Fernandez, the Brazilian president insisted on maintaining bridges with Christina Kirchner, who remains an important leader of Peronism in the country. During his visit, there was an expectation that Lula could hold a meeting with the former president, which has not happened yet. Nor has he publicly criticized Macri, Fernandez’s predecessor.

Lula was also wary when he was questioned by the Argentine press during a press conference. When asked about his assessment of the domestic political scenario, Lula avoided announcing his support for the candidates, but warned against the supposed risk of a far-right victory.

“I don’t like to make an educated guess about another country’s policies […] The only thing I can say is that when Alberto Fernandez won the election, I was very happy. I don’t know if he will be a candidate or not […] The only thing I hope is that Argentina will not allow the far right to win elections here.”

Lula’s speech came after he criticized his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, likening Fernandez Bolsonaro to Mauricio Macri.

“Bolsonaro passed Brazil and Macri passed Argentina,” said Fernandez.

But Lula did not criticize Macri on his first day in Argentina. For Oliver Stewinkel, Professor of International Relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Lula avoided criticizing Macri, who is considered a member of the moderate right, and focused on the far right, realizing that the victory of a representative of this political sector would harm the integration of Latin America.

“I think that the scenario of the victory of the extreme right in Argentina worries (Lula) because it would mark the end of thinking about the future of cooperation in Latin America,” said the professor.

“But if someone like (Horacio Rodriguez) Larreta wins, I don’t think it will interest Lula, but not to the point of alienating the moderate Argentine right,” said the professor, referring to the mayor of Buenos Aires.

Stoenkel considers Fernandez’s affinity with a leader considered as well-known as Lula to be useful in election years, but has limited influence.

“As the campaign approaches, it certainly pays to be around internationally known people to convey an image as a statesman. At the same time, the impact of this cannot be overestimated. Just look at the state of Brexit. Barack Obama went to the UK to speak out against Brexit from the European Union and had little impact.