Reform Party [Reform Party] After the process of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (EU) in 2021 is completed, it has been replaced by the Brexit Party, which has so far remained influenced by the referendum, electing only a handful of mayors at the local level.
But even without Nigel Farage, the formation has gained vitality in recent months and managed to put a deputy in the House of Commons thanks to the departure of former Conservative deputy leader Lee Anderson.
Support for the Reform Party has doubled in the past year as it has risen to third place nationally in criticism of the government on issues such as tax policy and immigration.
In addition to defending lower taxes and greater immigration control, he opposes current goals to combat climate change and reduce pollution.
According to pollsters on the Politico website, the reformers gather 13% of voting intentions, with more than half (22%) recorded by the 'Tories' led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Liberal Democrats (9). % ) and green (6%).
Analysts expect the reform to sway the Conservative Party's vote in some places and the Blackpool South parliamentary constituency, particularly in the north of England, where voters are more Eurosceptic and anti-immigration.
Although the Brexit Party chose not to field candidates against the Conservatives in 2019, this year leader Richard Dice said the aim of reform in the next general election was to “crush the Tories” and reorganize politics in the UK.
London School of Economics (LSE) political science professor Sarah Hopbold told Agência Lusa that the focus will be on the effectiveness of the reform in the Blackpool South regional parliament, rather than local elections.
The election was triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP Scott Benton after breaching lobbying rules.
Hobbold joked that a win for the Reformers would be a “huge achievement” as the party still has low public approval ratings, and could force Nigel Farage back into active politics.
“Blackpool is one of the most backward towns in the UK. It's a place that voted heavily for Brexit and reform to do reasonably well. The question is whether the reformers will steal votes from the Conservatives or Labour,” explained another LSE academic, Tony Travers.
Travers said some polls in northern and central England showed the Reform Party ahead of the Conservatives among older male voters.
Both analysts believe Labor is the favorite in Blackpool South, given its huge lead in the polls, so it would be surprising if Reform wins or comes second.
“If the reform succeeds, it will be an encouraging moment for British politics. I think it will be a shock because it will suggest the possibility of a leap forward, which will create yet another problem for the Conservatives,” Travers warned.